The United States of America as we know it is approaching a fork in the road driven by concurrent forces pulling and pushing us in different directions. There is a plausible chance that in 2021 the United 50 States of America fundamentally change in count and existence.
I don't say this to be an alarmist or conspiratorial but to make you aware of a possible reality that we could be in without any targeted attempt to do so. The forces that are acting upon us are all tied to one of the following: COVID-19 pandemic, economies, upcoming 2020 general election and lack of confidence in the federal government.
The current pandemic tied to the coronavirus is still in the early stages of its impact on the world and especially America. We don't know when we will be able to contain it and we don't know that our perceived containment will hold. We are not sure how many people will be infected, hospitalized or die from the virus. What we do know is that the other side of this will fundamentally change our mindset and behaviors as we move forward as a society. We will be part of a new generation that had to deal with a pandemic and that impact can't be underestimated. The pandemic which has no end in sight will ultimately be an underlying factor to the remaining forces which will impact my hypothesis.
The disruption of the pandemic has been an unexpected pin in a bubble economy that has been running for 20yrs. Many see 2008 as a popped bubble but that was quickly patched up and refilled by the Federal Reserves poor decision making. Today we're in an economy where 3.3 million unemployment claims are filed in one week, a smashing record and the DOW Jones still rises by 1500pts. It shows the unexplicable existence of two economies. The real economies that the vast majority of people live in and the financial economy which dictates the policies, concern and outrage by those in charge of our government. The slide into recession or likely depression has already begun whether anyone on the power media wants to admit it or not. If you turn on your TV today all you're going to get is talking heads asking the wrong questions and being silent on core issues in today's economy. The real economy we live in is based mostly on our local experience and living conditions. You eat localy, you live locally, you have a lot of your fun locally, you spend a significant amount of your money locally one way or another. The pandemic has put a stop to a lot of those activities as we're all focused on surviving. Most of the management for containment and recovery is being managed by governors and mayors not by the President and Congress. You turn on your TV and you see local and state officials working to do what they think is best. Some are more focused on survival priorities versus economic priorities. Ultimately they will be judged on their ability to guide us back to economic activity with a healthy and confident population. The path taken to get there will be how judgement is applied. You have 50 governors and thousands of mayors who are not working on the same page. This will lead to variance in the aforementioned outcomes. The variance of those outcomes could be the first cracks in the union. Governors who have guided their states to a health trajectory and renewed economic activity will start taking measures to protect those trends. One thing you could do is putting expansive controls on who comes into and out of your state if you deem them a health risk which at this point we all understand is also an economic risk. There's no separation of health and economic risks when it comes to the pandemic.